MGM National Harbor, Oxon Hill, Maryland, April 8
TV: HBO
By Peter Lim
The temptation (and frequent mistake) in predicting the outcome of many fights is paying too much attention to a common opponent. There are a multitude of factors and intangibles that come into play besides the one guy they had both previously encountered. But with Vasyl Lomachenko and Jason Sosa, their performances against their common and most high-profile opponent speaks volumes about how their showdown will unfold.
As a slight favorite, Lomachenko (7-1, 5 KOs) effortlessly dominated and stopped Nick Walters in November. Sosa (20-1-4, 15 KOs), on the other hand, was a substantial underdog when he fought Walters to a draw in 2015. It was a fair verdict despite the lopsided scores that the HBO commentators had in favor of Walters.
Sosa forced the slick and hard-hitting Walters into the trenches where they brawled on relatively even terms. Lomachenko had answers to Walters movement and nullified his power regardless of whether they engaged at long range or up close and personal.
Brain bests brawn in this showdown. As tough and doggedly determined as Sosa might be, it's no match against arguably the best ring IQ in the sport today. Mixing hard and soft punches from his southpaw stance, Lomachenko pecks, peppers and pounds Sosa with combinations upstairs and down en route to a 10th round stoppage.
Friday, April 7, 2017
Friday, March 17, 2017
Gennady Golovkin vs. Daniel Jacobs
Madison Square Garden, NY, March 18
TV: HBO Pay-Per-View
By Peter Lim
TV: HBO Pay-Per-View
By Peter Lim
It will not be lost on Daniel Jacobs (32-1, 29 KOs) and his team that, the longer you let Gennady Golovkin (36-0, 33 KOs) hang around, the more dangerous he becomes as he figures out your style and starts piercing through your defense with lethal punches from both fists from every conceivable angle upstairs and down.
Figuring his best chance for victory is to pounce early, strike first and strike hard, Jacobs will unleash his big guns from the opening bell, sparking a shootout as violent and heart-stopping as Hagler-Hearns.
Jacobs lands some hellacious right hands and left hooks in his blitzkrieg attack, testing Golovkin's chin, heart and grace under fire like never before. The Kazakh appears out on his feet for the first time in his career, but as Jacobs moves in for the kill, he runs smack into one of Golovkin's sledgehammer hooks that renders the New Yorker unconscious in front of his hometown crowd before the end of the first round.
Figuring his best chance for victory is to pounce early, strike first and strike hard, Jacobs will unleash his big guns from the opening bell, sparking a shootout as violent and heart-stopping as Hagler-Hearns.
Jacobs lands some hellacious right hands and left hooks in his blitzkrieg attack, testing Golovkin's chin, heart and grace under fire like never before. The Kazakh appears out on his feet for the first time in his career, but as Jacobs moves in for the kill, he runs smack into one of Golovkin's sledgehammer hooks that renders the New Yorker unconscious in front of his hometown crowd before the end of the first round.
Saturday, March 4, 2017
Danny Garcia vs. Keith Thurman
Barclay's Canter, Brooklyn, NY, March 4
TV: Showtime
By Peter Lim
Garcia and Thurman represent each other's toughest tests to date. Garcia might have fought a longer list of quality opponents, but in that same vein, he is the more shopworn of the two. Both are 28 years old but Thurman appears to be the fresher of the two and holds an edge in both speed and power.
Garcia has proven he has the dexterity to out-maneuver slick speedsters and the chin to outlast crushing power punchers but he has never faced a fighter like Thurman, with such a lethal combination of blaze and bang . He neutralized Amir Khan's speed with timing and absorbed Lucas Mathysse's power shots with aplomb. Thurman, though, represents an eclectic hybrid of Khan and Mathysse who has incorporated their best assets but discarded their weaknesses.
The result of this showdown will be determined not by who has the better assets but who has the more exploitable weakness. Shawn Porter and Luis Collazo exposed Thurman's Achilles' heel - he doesn't handle body shots too well - something that has not been lost on Garcia and his camp.
Thurman dominates the early rounds with superior speed and movement, but midway through the bout, Garcia digs a hook to the torso that visibly hurts Thurman. While Porter and Collazo allowed Thurman to regroup, Garcia does not make the same mistake. He zeroes his shots downstairs to inflict further damage. Thurman never fully recovers and, for the remainder of the fight, he is preoccupied with protecting his ribcage, paving the way for Garcia to cruise to a comfortable decision victory.
TV: Showtime
By Peter Lim
Garcia and Thurman represent each other's toughest tests to date. Garcia might have fought a longer list of quality opponents, but in that same vein, he is the more shopworn of the two. Both are 28 years old but Thurman appears to be the fresher of the two and holds an edge in both speed and power.
Garcia has proven he has the dexterity to out-maneuver slick speedsters and the chin to outlast crushing power punchers but he has never faced a fighter like Thurman, with such a lethal combination of blaze and bang . He neutralized Amir Khan's speed with timing and absorbed Lucas Mathysse's power shots with aplomb. Thurman, though, represents an eclectic hybrid of Khan and Mathysse who has incorporated their best assets but discarded their weaknesses.
The result of this showdown will be determined not by who has the better assets but who has the more exploitable weakness. Shawn Porter and Luis Collazo exposed Thurman's Achilles' heel - he doesn't handle body shots too well - something that has not been lost on Garcia and his camp.
Thurman dominates the early rounds with superior speed and movement, but midway through the bout, Garcia digs a hook to the torso that visibly hurts Thurman. While Porter and Collazo allowed Thurman to regroup, Garcia does not make the same mistake. He zeroes his shots downstairs to inflict further damage. Thurman never fully recovers and, for the remainder of the fight, he is preoccupied with protecting his ribcage, paving the way for Garcia to cruise to a comfortable decision victory.
Friday, January 27, 2017
Carl Frampton vs. Leo Santa Cruz II
MGM Grand, Las Vegas, NV, Jan. 28
TV: Showtime
By Peter Lim
Carl Frampton (23-0, 14 KOs) entered the ring a slight underdog when he faced Leo Santa Cruz (32-1-1, 18 KOs) last year. Frampton pulled off a minor upset by controlling the distance and tempo of the fight to befuddle Santa Cruz and edge him by a majority decision.
Having won their first encounter, Frampton should be a slight favorite in the rematch. But it will be Santa Cruz's turn to adjust his fight strategy and turn the tables on Frampton this time around.
Santa Cruz underestimated Frampton's boxing ability and gamesmanship in their first encounter and tried to steamroll and out-brawl the Irishman as he did successfully against 32 previous opponents. He won't make the same mistake in the rematch.
Santa Cruz will tone down his signature blitzkrieg attacks in lieu of a more calculated but less macho approach. Utilizing his longer reach, he beats Frampton to the jab from the outside. He nullifies Frampton's in-and-out forays by covering and countering with accurate shots instead of returning fire with reckless abandon like he did in the first fight.
Santa Cruz's measured game plan might make him a less exciting fighter but, against the wily Frampton, it gets the job done. Santa Cruz wins a close but clear-cut decision on the scorecards, laying the groundwork for an intriguing tie breaker.
TV: Showtime
By Peter Lim
Carl Frampton (23-0, 14 KOs) entered the ring a slight underdog when he faced Leo Santa Cruz (32-1-1, 18 KOs) last year. Frampton pulled off a minor upset by controlling the distance and tempo of the fight to befuddle Santa Cruz and edge him by a majority decision.
Having won their first encounter, Frampton should be a slight favorite in the rematch. But it will be Santa Cruz's turn to adjust his fight strategy and turn the tables on Frampton this time around.
Santa Cruz underestimated Frampton's boxing ability and gamesmanship in their first encounter and tried to steamroll and out-brawl the Irishman as he did successfully against 32 previous opponents. He won't make the same mistake in the rematch.
Santa Cruz will tone down his signature blitzkrieg attacks in lieu of a more calculated but less macho approach. Utilizing his longer reach, he beats Frampton to the jab from the outside. He nullifies Frampton's in-and-out forays by covering and countering with accurate shots instead of returning fire with reckless abandon like he did in the first fight.
Santa Cruz's measured game plan might make him a less exciting fighter but, against the wily Frampton, it gets the job done. Santa Cruz wins a close but clear-cut decision on the scorecards, laying the groundwork for an intriguing tie breaker.
Tuesday, December 6, 2016
Jermall Charlo vs. Julian Williams
USC Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA, Dec. 10
TV: Showtime
By Peter Lim
Both young, undefeated combatants face their sternest tests to date against each other. Charlo (24-0, 18 KOs) and Williams (22-0-1, 14 KOs), both 26, share similar attributes and styles; both are proficient boxer-punchers with decent power in either hand, who match up pretty evenly in speed, defense and ring generalship.
Charlo is the more stationary and confrontational fighter while Williams is more fleet-footed and agile, but not by much. In Williams, Charlo faces an opponent for the first time in his career against whom he does not have a significant size advantage. Neither fighter's chin has been severely tested at this juncture of their careers.
Charlo won his belt by dethroning someone who can be best described as a caretaker titleholder in Cornelius Bundrage and successfully defended it against someone who can best be described as a fringe contender in Wilky Campfort last year. Earlier this year, he adapted and adjusted to methodically outpoint wily veteran southpaw Austin Trout.
While Charlo's level of competition has been decent but far from stellar, Williams has gotten this far by defeating a garden variety of gatekeepers and unproven prospects. His best opponents to date were Hugo Centeno Jr. whom he was dominating before it ended in a butt-induced no contest and faded former titlist Joachim Alcine, whom he outpointed over eight rounds.
Given Charlo's slight edge in quality of opposition and better knockout percentage, he should, on paper at least, enter the ring as about a 55-45 favorite. But fights are not contested on spread sheets and statistical analysis can only go so far in predicting the outcomes. Mathematical calculations can, and have been, be derailed by a randomness of intangibles when two equally-endowed pugilists violently collide in a 20X20 square foot ring for 36 minutes.
In this instance, though, Charlo's slight edge on paper will play out in the squared circle.
Williams' mobility and spunk might trouble Charlo in the early rounds. But as the fight progresses, Charlo makes the right adjustments to neutralize Williams' speed and stymie his rhythm much like Vernon Forrest did against Shane Mosley in 2002. Charlo offsets Williams by timing him with his stiff jab to get the better of the exchanges and win a close by clear-cut decision in the 116-112 to 115-113 range.
Afterthoughts:
Charlo's momentary lapse of sportsmanship should not detract from the masterful maneuver he executed to win the fight. The level of difficulty of the catch-and-counter Charlo used to separate Williams from his senses cannot be overstated.
It is hard enough to pull off the catch-and-counter with the same fist, let alone score a knockout with it. And the uppercut is probably the hardest punch to set up, let alone deploy as a split-second reaction counter. But it seemed almost second nature to Charlo when he blocked an incoming right cross with his right glove and instantaneously returned fire using the same hand with pinpoint accuracy to seal his victory.
The maneuver was not just brilliant, it might well be unprecedented in the history of championship-level boxing. If anyone knows of a similar catch-and-counter sequence that resulted in a knockout in a major fight, please post a comment and tell us about it.
Charlo's latest victory also unveiled some other interesting qualities about the fighter:
-- When a fighter drops his opponents with a mere jab in three out of four title fights, it is the real deal. Not since Mark Breland has a fighter been able to not just stun, but seriously hurt other men of equal size with the most basic punch in boxing. Pound for pound, Charlo might have the best jab in the sport today.
-- With his latest win, Charlo has scored knockdowns and knockouts with every punch in the book - left jab, left hook, left uppercut, right cross and right uppercut. The only thing that has yet to emerge in his arsenal is body punching.
-- He has a pretty decent set of whiskers. Charlo's punch resistance was a question mark before the Williams fight but he absorbed everything Williams landed with aplomb, unflinchingly returning fire with composure each time he was nailed by a clean shot.
-- In the process of passing the chin test, the fact that Williams was able to connect with flush punches throughout the encounter exposed the holes in Charlo's defense. Slicker, more experienced fighters the likes of Canelo, Triple G and Danny Jacobs might be able to exploit the chinks in Charlo's armor more effectively than Williams.
-- Charlo appears overly concerned about his public persona and what his opponents, the media and fans say about him. Against Williams, he was able to contain his emotions until after the fight was over but as he advances to bigger fights, he might find it harder to keep his psyche in check.
TV: Showtime
By Peter Lim
Both young, undefeated combatants face their sternest tests to date against each other. Charlo (24-0, 18 KOs) and Williams (22-0-1, 14 KOs), both 26, share similar attributes and styles; both are proficient boxer-punchers with decent power in either hand, who match up pretty evenly in speed, defense and ring generalship.
Charlo is the more stationary and confrontational fighter while Williams is more fleet-footed and agile, but not by much. In Williams, Charlo faces an opponent for the first time in his career against whom he does not have a significant size advantage. Neither fighter's chin has been severely tested at this juncture of their careers.
Charlo won his belt by dethroning someone who can be best described as a caretaker titleholder in Cornelius Bundrage and successfully defended it against someone who can best be described as a fringe contender in Wilky Campfort last year. Earlier this year, he adapted and adjusted to methodically outpoint wily veteran southpaw Austin Trout.
While Charlo's level of competition has been decent but far from stellar, Williams has gotten this far by defeating a garden variety of gatekeepers and unproven prospects. His best opponents to date were Hugo Centeno Jr. whom he was dominating before it ended in a butt-induced no contest and faded former titlist Joachim Alcine, whom he outpointed over eight rounds.
Given Charlo's slight edge in quality of opposition and better knockout percentage, he should, on paper at least, enter the ring as about a 55-45 favorite. But fights are not contested on spread sheets and statistical analysis can only go so far in predicting the outcomes. Mathematical calculations can, and have been, be derailed by a randomness of intangibles when two equally-endowed pugilists violently collide in a 20X20 square foot ring for 36 minutes.
In this instance, though, Charlo's slight edge on paper will play out in the squared circle.
Williams' mobility and spunk might trouble Charlo in the early rounds. But as the fight progresses, Charlo makes the right adjustments to neutralize Williams' speed and stymie his rhythm much like Vernon Forrest did against Shane Mosley in 2002. Charlo offsets Williams by timing him with his stiff jab to get the better of the exchanges and win a close by clear-cut decision in the 116-112 to 115-113 range.
Afterthoughts:
Charlo's momentary lapse of sportsmanship should not detract from the masterful maneuver he executed to win the fight. The level of difficulty of the catch-and-counter Charlo used to separate Williams from his senses cannot be overstated.
It is hard enough to pull off the catch-and-counter with the same fist, let alone score a knockout with it. And the uppercut is probably the hardest punch to set up, let alone deploy as a split-second reaction counter. But it seemed almost second nature to Charlo when he blocked an incoming right cross with his right glove and instantaneously returned fire using the same hand with pinpoint accuracy to seal his victory.
The maneuver was not just brilliant, it might well be unprecedented in the history of championship-level boxing. If anyone knows of a similar catch-and-counter sequence that resulted in a knockout in a major fight, please post a comment and tell us about it.
Charlo's latest victory also unveiled some other interesting qualities about the fighter:
-- When a fighter drops his opponents with a mere jab in three out of four title fights, it is the real deal. Not since Mark Breland has a fighter been able to not just stun, but seriously hurt other men of equal size with the most basic punch in boxing. Pound for pound, Charlo might have the best jab in the sport today.
-- With his latest win, Charlo has scored knockdowns and knockouts with every punch in the book - left jab, left hook, left uppercut, right cross and right uppercut. The only thing that has yet to emerge in his arsenal is body punching.
-- He has a pretty decent set of whiskers. Charlo's punch resistance was a question mark before the Williams fight but he absorbed everything Williams landed with aplomb, unflinchingly returning fire with composure each time he was nailed by a clean shot.
-- In the process of passing the chin test, the fact that Williams was able to connect with flush punches throughout the encounter exposed the holes in Charlo's defense. Slicker, more experienced fighters the likes of Canelo, Triple G and Danny Jacobs might be able to exploit the chinks in Charlo's armor more effectively than Williams.
-- Charlo appears overly concerned about his public persona and what his opponents, the media and fans say about him. Against Williams, he was able to contain his emotions until after the fight was over but as he advances to bigger fights, he might find it harder to keep his psyche in check.
Monday, November 21, 2016
NicholasWalters vs.Vasyl Lomachenko
The Cosmopolitan, Las Vegas, NV, Nov. 26
TV: HBO
By Peter Lim
What an excellent and intriguing matchup between the top two super featherweights, which on paper appears to be a complete mismatch. Despite Walters (26-0-1, 21 KOs) having almost four itmes as many pro bouts as Lomachenko (6-1, 4 KOs), this fight appears to be a virtual 50-50 tossup.
The only stumper in this equation is Lomachenko's chin. We know from previous fights that both fighters can proficiently box and explosively bang; Walters might be the better puncher by a tad and Lomachenko the more cerebral tactician by a little more than tad. But while Walters has stoically absorbed clean shots from some of the hardest-hitting featherweights, Lomachenko's punch resistance has remained largely untested in his seven pro fights.
Given Walters' crafty ring generalship, he will catch Lomachenko with direct hits at various points in the fight, but should Lomachenko be able to withstand and shake off those power punches, his superior versatility and punch volume will rule the day in this showdown. While Walters' boxing IQ might be borderline genius, Lomachenko's is pure Mensa.
The Ukrainian's whiskers will ultimately prove sturdy enough to withstand Walters' bombs. He makes the better adjustments to deftly out-box and out-hustle the Jamaican for a close but unanimous decision victory in the 115-113 to 116-112 range in a suspenseful and action-packed encounter.
Afterthoughts:
Every attribute of both fighters - power, speed, IQ, chin and experience - was taken into consideration in predicting the outcome of this fight except one - heart. Walters sure didn't handle adversity too well, did he?He failed the ultimate gut check.
TV: HBO
By Peter Lim
What an excellent and intriguing matchup between the top two super featherweights, which on paper appears to be a complete mismatch. Despite Walters (26-0-1, 21 KOs) having almost four itmes as many pro bouts as Lomachenko (6-1, 4 KOs), this fight appears to be a virtual 50-50 tossup.
The only stumper in this equation is Lomachenko's chin. We know from previous fights that both fighters can proficiently box and explosively bang; Walters might be the better puncher by a tad and Lomachenko the more cerebral tactician by a little more than tad. But while Walters has stoically absorbed clean shots from some of the hardest-hitting featherweights, Lomachenko's punch resistance has remained largely untested in his seven pro fights.
Given Walters' crafty ring generalship, he will catch Lomachenko with direct hits at various points in the fight, but should Lomachenko be able to withstand and shake off those power punches, his superior versatility and punch volume will rule the day in this showdown. While Walters' boxing IQ might be borderline genius, Lomachenko's is pure Mensa.
The Ukrainian's whiskers will ultimately prove sturdy enough to withstand Walters' bombs. He makes the better adjustments to deftly out-box and out-hustle the Jamaican for a close but unanimous decision victory in the 115-113 to 116-112 range in a suspenseful and action-packed encounter.
Afterthoughts:
Every attribute of both fighters - power, speed, IQ, chin and experience - was taken into consideration in predicting the outcome of this fight except one - heart. Walters sure didn't handle adversity too well, did he?He failed the ultimate gut check.
Friday, November 18, 2016
Sergei Kovalev vs. Andre Ward
T-Mobile Center, Las Vegas, NV, Nov. 19
TV: HBO Pay-Per-View
By Peter Lim
This prediction is based on how each fighter's performances against previous opponents with styles close or similar to the other's.
Sergei Kovalev faced tricky, elusive, shoulder-rolling fighters in his two fights with Jean Pascal and Bernard Hopkins. In both cases, Kovalev had little trouble penetrating their defenses and delivering punches from difficult angles. He dominated both fighters, stopping Pascal twice and pitching a virtual shutout against Hopkins.
The closest opponent to Kovalev style-wise that Andre Ward has faced is a composite of Carl Froch Mikkel Kessler. While Ward pretty much had his way against Kessler, he had a harder time with Froch. He allowed Froch to sporadically be first to the punch, get inside and back him up.
Kovalev will not be able to hit Ward as easily and relentlessly as he did Hopkins and Pascal, but his punches will get there nonetheless. Feeling the Russian's power, Ward attempts to kill his rhythm by smothering and clinching with a measure of success. But Kovalev is steadfast in his attack and finds enough openings to win a decision in the 116-112 range.
Afterthoughts
Great fight, horrible decision and atrociously biased commentary by Max Kellerman and Roy Jones. The fight unfolded exactly as predicted except for the terrible verdict.
Equally horrendous decision in the Darleys Perez-Maurice Hooker undercard.
TV: HBO Pay-Per-View
By Peter Lim
This prediction is based on how each fighter's performances against previous opponents with styles close or similar to the other's.
Sergei Kovalev faced tricky, elusive, shoulder-rolling fighters in his two fights with Jean Pascal and Bernard Hopkins. In both cases, Kovalev had little trouble penetrating their defenses and delivering punches from difficult angles. He dominated both fighters, stopping Pascal twice and pitching a virtual shutout against Hopkins.
The closest opponent to Kovalev style-wise that Andre Ward has faced is a composite of Carl Froch Mikkel Kessler. While Ward pretty much had his way against Kessler, he had a harder time with Froch. He allowed Froch to sporadically be first to the punch, get inside and back him up.
Kovalev will not be able to hit Ward as easily and relentlessly as he did Hopkins and Pascal, but his punches will get there nonetheless. Feeling the Russian's power, Ward attempts to kill his rhythm by smothering and clinching with a measure of success. But Kovalev is steadfast in his attack and finds enough openings to win a decision in the 116-112 range.
Afterthoughts
Great fight, horrible decision and atrociously biased commentary by Max Kellerman and Roy Jones. The fight unfolded exactly as predicted except for the terrible verdict.
Equally horrendous decision in the Darleys Perez-Maurice Hooker undercard.
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