Errol Spence Jr. vs. Mikey Garcia

AT&T Stadium, Dallas, March 16
TV: Fox Pay-Per-View
By Peter Lim

It's often tempting to root for the little guy in David-versus-Goliath matchups. Given that Mikey Garcia, at just 5-foot-6 is a smallish lightweight and Errol Spence Jr., at just under 5-foot-10 is a big welterweight, this is exactly what it is.

Common sense prevails over any wishful thinking in this case. Spence's advantage in size, strength and punching power is just too much for Garcia to overcome. What, on paper looks like an intriguing and scintillating matchup, turns out to be a mismatch.

Garcia attempts to box in the early goings but his jab, formidable as it might be at the lower weights, won't back Spence up and the create openings he seeks. Spence answers with his longer, stiffer southpaw jab that jolts Garcia's head back, denying him the opportunity to establish any kind of rhythm. When Garcia manages to land a clean punch, Spence absorbs it effortlessly and returns fire with a vengeance.

By the fourth round, the writing is on the wall; Garcia had not only severely underestimated Spence's strength but also his skill level and ring IQ. Garcia valiantly increases his punch volume by flurrying but Spence stands his ground, and makes Garcia pay with pinpoint counter punches from different angles upstairs and down. With Garcia battered and bloodied, his corner wisely decides to not let him answer the bell for the eighth round.

Manny Pacquiao versus Adrian Broner

MGM Grand, Las Vegas, NV, January 19
TV: Showtime PPV
By Peter Lim

Both fighters find each other to be relatively easy targets and take turns teeing off on each other with one-twos on relatively even terms for the early rounds. But by the fifth round, Pacquiao figures out if he returns fire when Broner attacks, he backs off and is reluctant to engage in any prolonged exchanges.

Pacquiao dominates the middle rounds as he increases his punch output, mixing in right hooks and body punches to his offense, forcing Broner to retreat into defense mode. When pinned against the rope, Broner seems content to just cover up without punching back.

Aware that he has fallen behind on the scorecards, Broner attempts to rally in the ninth and tenth rounds by punching in bunches but Paquiao stands his ground, drives him back with straight lefts and refuses to let him get the upper hand or change the momentum of the fight. Pacquiao boxes strategically with controlled aggression in the championship rounds and cruises to a decision victory in the 116-112 range.  

Jermell Charlo vs. Tony Harrison, Jermall Charlo vs. Matt Korobov

Let’s not kid ourselves and believe that these are anything more than stay-busy, brand-building fights for the Charlo twins. Matt Korobov and Tony Harrison might be competent, B-caliber fighters but their vulnerabilities have already been exposed at the championship level. At the very most, Munroe and Harrison represent yardsticks since they have fallen short against other world titleholders.

Jermell Charlo vs. Tony Harrison

Harrison can crack and has above-average boxing skills but, as evidenced in his knockout losses to Jared Hurd and Willie Nelson, his chin is suspect. Jermell Charlo is defensively sound, his chin has been sufficiently tested and is equal or better than Harrison in boxing ability and punching power. The only chance Harrison has for winning this fight is if he catches Charlo napping.

The fight might be competitive in the opening rounds but once Jermell lands the first clean punch, Harrison will begin to unravel. It will happen sooner rather than later. By the third round, Jermell figures out a way to out-jab Harrison and, in the fifth round he stops Harrison with left-right-left hook combination. The victory fuels a much-anticipated Charlo-Hurd triple-unification showdown in 2019.

Jermall Charlo vs. Matt Korobov

Korobov came in on five days notice, replacing Willie Munroe Jr. who tested for excessive levels of testosterone. Like Munroe, Korobov is a southpaw, but that’s where the similarity ends. The Russian is markedly bigger than Munroe and his style is more rugged and in-your-face. All in all, though, Korobov turns out to be more custom-made for Charlo than Munroe.

In the initial rounds, Charlo has trouble finding the range for his jab clean against the lefty, but once he does, he shoots it out in doubles and triples, gradually creating openings for his other weaponry. Korobov determinedly returns fire but he simply cannot match the Charlo’s firepower and accuracy.

Preoccupied with dodging Charlo’s jab, Korobov runs smack into a straight right that sends him reeling in the sixth round. Charlo pounces on his wounded prey with a multi-punch flurry punctuated by a right uppercut that prompts Korobov’s corner to toss in the towel.  

Deontay Wilder vs. Tyson Fury

Staples Center, Los Angeles, Dec. 1

TV: Showtime PPV

By Peter Lim

Fury’s sheer mass and awkwardness proves problematic for Wilder from the outset. At 6-foot-10 and 250 pounds, Fury is by no means a limber, spring-footed heavyweight like Ali or Holmes. But he nevertheless manages to dictate the action by moving Wilder around with his size and pesky jab denying Wilder the leverage or trajectory to land the lethal harpoon he calls a right hand. Fury is not a devastating puncher but even arm punches delivered by the giant forces the stringbean-framed Wilder to continually set and reset.

But Wilder has prevailed against nightmare opponents before and, more importantly, has proved on more than one occasion that he retains the dynamite in his fists in the later rounds. Fury’s work rate decelerates a tad as the fight progresses. The slowdown is subtle but does not go unnoticed by Wilder’s corner who orders him to pull and counter every time Fury takes a forward step.

The tactic takes a few failed attempts to work but when it does, the result is sudden and spectacular. In the tenth round Fury attacks with a one-two and Wilder takes half a step back before exploding with the similar combo that lands smack on the jaw sending Fury crashing to the canvass for the full count.

Gennady Golovkin vs. Saul "Canelo" Alvarez II

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV, Sept. 15

TV: HBO

By Peter Lim

Golovkin won eight to 10 rounds on this blogger’s scorecard in the first fight … and he was holding back. His jab was spot on and his power shots to the head visibly rattled Canelo while Canelo’s best punches barely made him blink. But when he had Canelo on the ropes, Triple G seemed reluctant to let his fists fly with bad intentions and was content to let Canelo off the hook, almost as if he was intent on taking the fight the distance. Conspicuously absent from Triple G’s arsenal was his deadly body assault.

Triple G will not make the same mistake of having the judges decide the outcome this time around. He once again establishes his jab and forces Canelo to fight at amore frenetic pace than the first fight. But most importantly, he unleashes his thunder down under to Canelo’s torso that ultimately breaks him down and stops him in the ninth round.

  

Leo Santa Cruz vs. Abner Mares II

Staple Center, Los Angeles, June 9
TV: Showtime
By Peter Lim

Santa Cruz won a majority decision in 2015 in a fight so close it could have gone either way. Two things have transpired to tip the balance in Santa Cruz’s favor since then.
First, Santa Cruz has grown more due to a higher level of activity against a higher level of opposition. He fought four times, two against a fellow top-5 featherweight since their first encounter. Mares, on the other hand fought just twice during that same period.

Second, Santa Cruz has proven the propensity to learn from his mistakes and make the right adjustments in a rematch. He avenged his loss to Carl Frampton by fine tuning his strategy to turn the tables on Frampton when the met for a second time.

Santa Cruz is a tad smarter and sharper than Mares and makes the better decisions. He prudently picks his moments, out-boxing Mares when Mares opts to brawl and out-brawling Mares when Mares opts to box, winning a close but clear-cut decision in the 116-112 range.

Jermell Charlo vs. Austin Trout

The Staples Center, Los Angeles, June 9
TV: Showtime
By Peter Lim

The temptation in making a prediction here is to place too much emphasis on Trout’s decision loss to Jermell’s identical twin Jermall in 2016. But as all parties will attest, all three boxers in that triangle are not the same fighters they were two years ago. Since then, Jermall has moved up to middleweight, Jermell has three world title bouts under his belt and Trout, coming off the first stoppage loss of his career, has changed trainers.

Trout’s defense is slick but not impenetrable and he has the experience to rarely get hit by one clean shot at a time. But Jermell will quickly discover that when he catches Trout with the right, he is a sitting duck for a follow-up right. By the fourth or fifth round, Jermell begins landing the double right with virtual impunity.

Trout courageously returns fire but to no avail. Jermell continues to press the action, gets the better of the exchanges and mixes in left hooks and right uppercuts into his attack. In the seventh round Jermell connects with a double right that has Trout out on his feet. He pounces on Trout with a vicious two-fisted assault that has Trout reeling defenselessly around the ring, forcing the referee to step in and end the beating.