Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. Danny Jacobs

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV, May 4
TV: DAZN
By Peter Lim

Many fans and pundits have pegged Jacobs as past his prime based on his recent track record - two close struggles against obscure and unheralded fighters with difficult-to-pronounce names. But few realize that Sergiy Derevyanchenko and Maciej Sulecki are two talented and tough world-class fighters who have gone under the radar. Going 24 rounds with these two underratedEast European fighters has only sharpened Jacobs‘ skills and upped his game.

Still, Canelo is a notch above Derevyanchenko and Sulecki and leaps and bounds ahead in terms of championship-level experience. Arguably among the top-notch fighters in the world today, Canelo has faced a parade of fellow pound-for-pounders in his career, losing just once to a boxer named Mayweather. Love him or hate him, it’s undeniable that, at age 28, Canelo has already accomplished hall-of-fame credentials. Guess what? The guy might not have reached his peak yet.

Canelo and Jacobs engage in an evenly-contested chess match in the early rounds with both fighters trying to figure each other out. But Canelo begins putting his foot on the accelerometer in the fourth round and gradually gains control. Forcing Jacobs into retreat mode, Canelo mixes his attack to the head and body with equal ferocity. Jacobs manages to catch Canelo coming in with sharp one-twos but they ar too few and far between to stymie Canelo’s momentum.

Aware that he is behind on the scorecards, Jacobs ups his punch volume in the ninth and tenth rounds, finding a measure of success by beating Canelo to the draw with double jab-straight right combinations. But just as he seems to be getting back into the fight, he is dropped by an overhand right-left hook combo in the eleventh round.

Canelo refuses to allow Jacobs to shake it off by going after him with a reinvigorated intensity but Jacobs survives the round by covering, clinching and switching to southpaw. Canelo continues to apply controlled pressure in the final round and Jacobs seems content to just survive the fight rather than go for broke. The judges award the fight to Canelo in the 117-110 to 116-111 range.

Regis Prograis vs. Kiryl Relikh

Cajundome, Lafayette, LA, April 27
TV: DAZN
By Peter Lim

Both Prograis and Relikh have beaten 23 opponents, stopping 19 of them. Relikh has lost twice, both by decision, while Prograis is undefeated. But throw in the fact that Relikh captured a world title while avenging one of his losses and what we have here are two evenly matched well-rounded fighters with formidable punching power. Prograis is a southpaw and Relikh’s right-handed.

The evenness of this matchup will be reflected during the first half of the bout as both fighters trade  punches on  relatively equal terms. But while Relikh is mostly headhunting, Prograis mixes his attack upstairs and down with similar ferocity.

Prograis’ body work makes the difference. By the sixth round Relikh’s movement is visibly slowed and his punches lack the pop they had in the early rounds. Prograis, though, inexplicably abandons his body attack and begins zeroing exclusively to the head in the seventh and eighth rounds, allowing Relikh to regain some momentum and resume his offensive surges.

But it turns out to be a trap. In the ninth round, as Relikh is getting back his confidence and unleashing punches with more gusto, Prograis freezes him in his tracks with a southpaw right hook to the ribcage. It sets up a pinpoint left to the liver that folds Relikh and renders him incapacitated on his hands and knees for the full count.

Terrence Crawford vs. Amir Khan

Madison Square Garden, NY, April 27
TV: ESPN
By Peter Lim

Ar first glance, Crawford vs. Khan might seem like an intriguing, competitive matchup, but given that Khan's most glaring weakness plays directly into the Crawford's best asset, it turns out to be a mismatch.

As quick-handed as Khan is, he is also very fundamentally flawed; when he misses his punches, his fists stray all over the place, his chin is floats invitingly up in the air and his balance is way off. It's precisely the type of mistakes that Crawford thrives on.

Utilizing his speed, Khan is first on the draw with one-twos in the early goings but Crawford kills his momentum every time by tying him up in a clinch. By the third round Khan begins flailing as Crawford figures him out and eludes the incoming fire. In the fourth round, Khan falls forward as he misses a combination and Crawford pounces with a left uppercut from a southpaw stance that drops Khan for the full count.

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Mikey Garcia

AT&T Stadium, Dallas, March 16
TV: Fox Pay-Per-View
By Peter Lim

It's often tempting to root for the little guy in David-versus-Goliath matchups. Given that Mikey Garcia, at just 5-foot-6 is a smallish lightweight and Errol Spence Jr., at just under 5-foot-10 is a big welterweight, this is exactly what it is.

Common sense prevails over any wishful thinking in this case. Spence's advantage in size, strength and punching power is just too much for Garcia to overcome. What, on paper looks like an intriguing and scintillating matchup, turns out to be a mismatch.

Garcia attempts to box in the early goings but his jab, formidable as it might be at the lower weights, won't back Spence up and the create openings he seeks. Spence answers with his longer, stiffer southpaw jab that jolts Garcia's head back, denying him the opportunity to establish any kind of rhythm. When Garcia manages to land a clean punch, Spence absorbs it effortlessly and returns fire with a vengeance.

By the fourth round, the writing is on the wall; Garcia had not only severely underestimated Spence's strength but also his skill level and ring IQ. Garcia valiantly increases his punch volume by flurrying but Spence stands his ground, and makes Garcia pay with pinpoint counter punches from different angles upstairs and down. With Garcia battered and bloodied, his corner wisely decides to not let him answer the bell for the eighth round.

Manny Pacquiao versus Adrian Broner

MGM Grand, Las Vegas, NV, January 19
TV: Showtime PPV
By Peter Lim

Both fighters find each other to be relatively easy targets and take turns teeing off on each other with one-twos on relatively even terms for the early rounds. But by the fifth round, Pacquiao figures out if he returns fire when Broner attacks, he backs off and is reluctant to engage in any prolonged exchanges.

Pacquiao dominates the middle rounds as he increases his punch output, mixing in right hooks and body punches to his offense, forcing Broner to retreat into defense mode. When pinned against the rope, Broner seems content to just cover up without punching back.

Aware that he has fallen behind on the scorecards, Broner attempts to rally in the ninth and tenth rounds by punching in bunches but Paquiao stands his ground, drives him back with straight lefts and refuses to let him get the upper hand or change the momentum of the fight. Pacquiao boxes strategically with controlled aggression in the championship rounds and cruises to a decision victory in the 116-112 range.  

Jermell Charlo vs. Tony Harrison, Jermall Charlo vs. Matt Korobov

Let’s not kid ourselves and believe that these are anything more than stay-busy, brand-building fights for the Charlo twins. Matt Korobov and Tony Harrison might be competent, B-caliber fighters but their vulnerabilities have already been exposed at the championship level. At the very most, Munroe and Harrison represent yardsticks since they have fallen short against other world titleholders.

Jermell Charlo vs. Tony Harrison

Harrison can crack and has above-average boxing skills but, as evidenced in his knockout losses to Jared Hurd and Willie Nelson, his chin is suspect. Jermell Charlo is defensively sound, his chin has been sufficiently tested and is equal or better than Harrison in boxing ability and punching power. The only chance Harrison has for winning this fight is if he catches Charlo napping.

The fight might be competitive in the opening rounds but once Jermell lands the first clean punch, Harrison will begin to unravel. It will happen sooner rather than later. By the third round, Jermell figures out a way to out-jab Harrison and, in the fifth round he stops Harrison with left-right-left hook combination. The victory fuels a much-anticipated Charlo-Hurd triple-unification showdown in 2019.

Jermall Charlo vs. Matt Korobov

Korobov came in on five days notice, replacing Willie Munroe Jr. who tested for excessive levels of testosterone. Like Munroe, Korobov is a southpaw, but that’s where the similarity ends. The Russian is markedly bigger than Munroe and his style is more rugged and in-your-face. All in all, though, Korobov turns out to be more custom-made for Charlo than Munroe.

In the initial rounds, Charlo has trouble finding the range for his jab clean against the lefty, but once he does, he shoots it out in doubles and triples, gradually creating openings for his other weaponry. Korobov determinedly returns fire but he simply cannot match the Charlo’s firepower and accuracy.

Preoccupied with dodging Charlo’s jab, Korobov runs smack into a straight right that sends him reeling in the sixth round. Charlo pounces on his wounded prey with a multi-punch flurry punctuated by a right uppercut that prompts Korobov’s corner to toss in the towel.  

Deontay Wilder vs. Tyson Fury

Staples Center, Los Angeles, Dec. 1

TV: Showtime PPV

By Peter Lim

Fury’s sheer mass and awkwardness proves problematic for Wilder from the outset. At 6-foot-10 and 250 pounds, Fury is by no means a limber, spring-footed heavyweight like Ali or Holmes. But he nevertheless manages to dictate the action by moving Wilder around with his size and pesky jab denying Wilder the leverage or trajectory to land the lethal harpoon he calls a right hand. Fury is not a devastating puncher but even arm punches delivered by the giant forces the stringbean-framed Wilder to continually set and reset.

But Wilder has prevailed against nightmare opponents before and, more importantly, has proved on more than one occasion that he retains the dynamite in his fists in the later rounds. Fury’s work rate decelerates a tad as the fight progresses. The slowdown is subtle but does not go unnoticed by Wilder’s corner who orders him to pull and counter every time Fury takes a forward step.

The tactic takes a few failed attempts to work but when it does, the result is sudden and spectacular. In the tenth round Fury attacks with a one-two and Wilder takes half a step back before exploding with the similar combo that lands smack on the jaw sending Fury crashing to the canvass for the full count.