Bell Center, Montreal, Quebec, Jan 30
TV: HBO
By Peter Lim
In a rematch, it is the loser of the first fight that always makes more changes to his game plan the winner. In Pascal's case, he will try to emulate and improve on what brought him the most success against Kovalev 10 months ago - staying low and lunging the Russian from awkward angles at opportune moments.
Both men fought on the same card in July but their respective bouts took much more of a toll on Pascal's chin, and perhaps his psyche, than it did Kovalev's. Kovalev had a casual stroll in the park stopping Nadjib Mohammedi in three rounds while Pascal absorbed horrendous punishment in his life and death struggle against Yunieski Gonzalez, so Kovalev enters the ring the fresher and less gun shy of the two.
Despite Pascal's adjustments, he will be less of a mystery to Kovalev in the rematch. The Russian assassin has the propensity to shoot straight punches at difficult targets, high or low, with precision and power. When Pascal's noggin is out of reach, he pummels the torso and, since he seldom over-commits to his punches, evades most of Pascal's counter flurries. Kovalev methodically chisels at cracks in Pascal's armor and those cracks quickly deteriorate into full-blown openings that Kovalev seizes upon to blast Pascal away in the fifth round.
Afterthoughts:
My premonition would have been spot on if not for two things: Pascal's torpedo-proof chin and Kovalev's intention, revealed post fight, to let Pascal off the hook in order to prolong the pain.
Monday, January 25, 2016
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Danny Garcia vs. Robert Guerrero
Staples Center, Los Angeles, Jan. 23
TV: Fox
By Peter Lim
Numerous blood-and-gut wars have taken their toll on both fighters and neither has looked as sharp or hungry as they were in their recent heydays. Perhaps it's a matter of them needing quality, high-profile opponents to ignite the fire in their bellies. But while Garcia has remained sturdy albeit unspectacular in recent bouts, Guerrero looked like a shot fighter in the gift of his split decision win over light-punching Aaron Martinez seven months ago.
Even if Guerrero can somehow recapture his past form that delivered signature victories over Andre Berto and Michael Katsidis, he nevertheless still falls short of pulling off a minor upset against Garcia. A more composite and multi-dimensional fighter, Garcia makes the better, more prudent mid-fight adjustments of the two to win a comfortable-to-lopsided decision.
Afterthoughts:
Just what I needed; a spot-on prediction after a horrific three-fight losing streak.
Guerrero has a very specific skill set but once you figure it out, he lacks the ability to adjust or modify his game plan.
TV: Fox
By Peter Lim
Numerous blood-and-gut wars have taken their toll on both fighters and neither has looked as sharp or hungry as they were in their recent heydays. Perhaps it's a matter of them needing quality, high-profile opponents to ignite the fire in their bellies. But while Garcia has remained sturdy albeit unspectacular in recent bouts, Guerrero looked like a shot fighter in the gift of his split decision win over light-punching Aaron Martinez seven months ago.
Even if Guerrero can somehow recapture his past form that delivered signature victories over Andre Berto and Michael Katsidis, he nevertheless still falls short of pulling off a minor upset against Garcia. A more composite and multi-dimensional fighter, Garcia makes the better, more prudent mid-fight adjustments of the two to win a comfortable-to-lopsided decision.
Afterthoughts:
Just what I needed; a spot-on prediction after a horrific three-fight losing streak.
Guerrero has a very specific skill set but once you figure it out, he lacks the ability to adjust or modify his game plan.
Sammy Vasquez vs. Aaron Martinez
Staples Center, Los Angeles, Jan. 23
TV: Fox
By Peter Lim
What makes this matchup so intriguing is that both fighters have posted impressive wins in their last bouts over opponents with the same attributes they will face against each other. A southpaw, Vasquez stopped tough guy Jose Lopez who had previously gone the distance against Victor Postol and Humberto Soto. On the same token, Martinez upset southpaw and former titleholder Devon Alexander in his last fight; prior to that, he dropped and almost stopped Robert Guerrero, also a southpaw and former titleholder, before being robbed of the decision.
But Martinez's success against accomplished southpaws ends with Vasquez. Vasquez's ability to both box and brawl, coupled with Martinez's lack of knockout power will be the determining factors in this fight. Vasquez dictates the action from the outside and when Martinez tries to crowd him, he willingly engages Martinez in the trenches and dominates the exchanges. Martinez will be a battered and beaten fighter by the late rounds, more from the accumulation of punishment than from any single punch or combination, and the referee mercifully calls a halt to the contest in the eighth round.
Afterthoughts:
When one fighter is a better boxer and harder puncher than the other fighter, the outcome is almost always a no-brainer.
TV: Fox
By Peter Lim
What makes this matchup so intriguing is that both fighters have posted impressive wins in their last bouts over opponents with the same attributes they will face against each other. A southpaw, Vasquez stopped tough guy Jose Lopez who had previously gone the distance against Victor Postol and Humberto Soto. On the same token, Martinez upset southpaw and former titleholder Devon Alexander in his last fight; prior to that, he dropped and almost stopped Robert Guerrero, also a southpaw and former titleholder, before being robbed of the decision.
But Martinez's success against accomplished southpaws ends with Vasquez. Vasquez's ability to both box and brawl, coupled with Martinez's lack of knockout power will be the determining factors in this fight. Vasquez dictates the action from the outside and when Martinez tries to crowd him, he willingly engages Martinez in the trenches and dominates the exchanges. Martinez will be a battered and beaten fighter by the late rounds, more from the accumulation of punishment than from any single punch or combination, and the referee mercifully calls a halt to the contest in the eighth round.
Afterthoughts:
When one fighter is a better boxer and harder puncher than the other fighter, the outcome is almost always a no-brainer.
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Deontay Wilder vs. Artur Szpilka
Barclay's Center, Brooklyn, NY, Jan. 16
TV: Showtime
By Peter Lim
Given how vulnerable Wilder has looked against very ordinary opponents, Szpilka is very much a live underdog, especially since Wilder is venturing into uncomfortable southpaw territory. And given Szpilka's sloppy defense that was exposed in his loss to Bryant Jennings, and the fact that both men can crack, the winner simply boils down to who lands the first clean power punch.
Despite his imposing height and reach, Wilder allows crude and limited brawlers to close the distance with alarming ease. Eric Molina and Johann Duhaupas were handpicked, run-of-the-mill right-handed opponents who did just that.
Wilder's negligible mileage as a pro against southpaws coupled with his tendency to hold his gloves low will ultimately be his Achilles' heel. A Szpilka right hook finds Wilder's chin over his low-hanging left in the fourth round dropping the lanky titleholder for the first time in his career. A follow-up barrage stops Wilder for an early candidate for the 2016 Upset of the Year.
Afterthoughts:
What I predicted to be a potential Upset of the Year turned out to be an early nominee for Knockout of the Year.
TV: Showtime
By Peter Lim
Given how vulnerable Wilder has looked against very ordinary opponents, Szpilka is very much a live underdog, especially since Wilder is venturing into uncomfortable southpaw territory. And given Szpilka's sloppy defense that was exposed in his loss to Bryant Jennings, and the fact that both men can crack, the winner simply boils down to who lands the first clean power punch.
Despite his imposing height and reach, Wilder allows crude and limited brawlers to close the distance with alarming ease. Eric Molina and Johann Duhaupas were handpicked, run-of-the-mill right-handed opponents who did just that.
Wilder's negligible mileage as a pro against southpaws coupled with his tendency to hold his gloves low will ultimately be his Achilles' heel. A Szpilka right hook finds Wilder's chin over his low-hanging left in the fourth round dropping the lanky titleholder for the first time in his career. A follow-up barrage stops Wilder for an early candidate for the 2016 Upset of the Year.
Afterthoughts:
What I predicted to be a potential Upset of the Year turned out to be an early nominee for Knockout of the Year.
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