Gennady Golovkin vs. Kell Brook

02 Arena, London, England, Sept. 10
TV: HBO, Sky Box Office
By Peter Lim

Discounting the obvious and often over-hyped size difference between the two, Golovkin will still be a solid favorite against Brook, given the Kazakh's superior knockout percentage and level of opposition. Even if Brook were a natural middleweight, he would still be facing an opponent with the punching power of a light heavyweight who has effortlessly dismantled a spectrum of opponents with a diaspora of styles.

Executioners, in today's era of capital punishment, exists in two polar extremes. In the Middle East, there are the sword-wielding butchers who decapitate with brute muscle power, and, in the supposedly more civilized United States, clinicians deliver their lethal blows with a scientifically calculated series of lethal injections. From a pugilistic analogy, Golovkin is an eclectic version of both.

He has beaten slick, speedier southpaws (Willie Monroe) to the punch, overpowered bonified brawlers ( Marco Antonio Rubio) and clinically dissected power punchers (David Lemieux) almost exclusively with his jab and boxing skills. Versatile as he is, he has demonstrated the propensity to drop and stop opponents from imaginative punch angles to the head and body with either fist.

Brook, on the other hand, has won virtually all of his fights as the badass playground bully. He has just been that much stronger, tougher and more alpha than everyone he's faced, Shawn Porter included. Granted, he has pretty decent boxing ability, but that's merely complimentary, incidental almost, to his success thus far.

Brook has stated that, should he beat Golovkin, it would represent a bigger upset than Sugar Ray Leonard's 1987 monumental victory over Marvin Hagler. But it is Roberto Duran, the fighter who also climbed two divisions to upset Leonard in 1980, that Brook must emulate if he wants to unseat Golovkin. Leonard was faster, broader framed and had better technical skills, yet Duran was able to taunt, lure and out-macho Leonard into the only territory where he had the advantage – the phone booth.

The lone longshot Brook has against Golovkin is to force him into chest-to-chest range and keep him there for the entire fight, the way Duran did against Leonard in their first encounter. Golovkin might have superior boxing skills and versatility but he has never been dragged into prolonged, frenetic trench warfare.

But Golovkin's exceptional firepower will ultimately be the deciding factor of this fight. Brook might start off strong and feisty but even if he outlands Golovkin by two punches to one, the sledgehammers Golovkin disguises as fists will inflict far more damage on Brook than anything the Brit can detonate on the Kazakh. Brook becomes more and more of a stationary target as the fight progresses and eventually succumbs to Golovkin's heavy hands in the seventh round.

Afterthoughts:
Brook's corner might have jumped the gun in tossing n the towel but the writing was on the wall. As Golovkin stated, Brook, as tough and talented as he is, is no middleweight.

Miguel Flores vs. Ryan Keilczewski

Turning Stone Casino, Verona, NY, Aug. 12
TV: ESPN
By Peter Lim


There couldn't be a more dead-even matchup - style wise, statistically and in actuality - between these two lanky five-foot-eight featherweights. Flores (20-0, 9 KOs) is a boxer-puncher who can fight effectively from the outside but prefers to slug it out in the trenches where he loves to unleash his favorite weapon - the left hook to the body. Kielczweski (25-1, 7 KOs), is the more cerebral stick-and-move tactician, but when forced to brawl, also favors the left hook to inflict the most damage up close and personal. Neither combatant, as their respective below 50-percent knockout rates suggest, has significant fight-ending power.

Ultimately, though, Flores' slight edge in brawling ability trumps Kielczweski's slight edge in boxing ability. Both combatants box on even terms from long range in the early goings, but when the action moves into toe-to-toe territory in the later rounds, Flores lands the snappier, more picturesque punches. At the end of the night, the Texan is rewarded for his fan-friendlier style, eking out a majority decision by scores of 96-94 (twice) and 95-95.

Leo Santa Cruz vs. Carl Frampton

Barclay's Center, Brookly, NY, July 30
TV: Showtime
By Peter Lim

It may sound cliched, but all things being equal, the good big man always defeats the good little man. Given that the slightly bigger Santa Cruz (32-0-1, 18 KOs) also has an edge over Frampton (22-0, 14 KOs) in power, quality of opposition and punch resistance, the outcome of this fight seems like a no-brainer.

Nothing can be taken for granted in the sport of boxing, though, and there have been exceptions to the rule in the big-man-versus-small-man department.  Davids have defeated equally or more accomplished Goliaths in the past, although the cases have been few and far between.

Michael Spinks became the first light heavyweight to win the heavyweight crown when he out-smarted Larry Holmes. Shane Mosley climbed two weight divisions to eke out a razor thin decision against Oscar De La Hoya. Roberto Duran, a natural lightweight, out-machoed the larger-framed Sugar Ray Leonard at welterweight in their first encounter. And Leonard came off a lengthy layoff, rose in weight and to the occasion to befuddle, bedazzle and dethrone long-reigning middleweight king Marvin Hagler.

While Frampton is not an all-time great like Spinks, Mosley, Duran or Leaonard, what he has going for him is his defense and ability to box from the outside. Mind you, Santa Cruz is no slouch when it comes to shooting punches from long range but it is almost a secondary skill set. Encoded in his Mexican DNA is the natural penchant to brawl; his boxing skills are merely a means to the further end of closing the distance and slugging it out in the trenches.

Santa Cruz's supposed size advantage becomes less significant when taking into account that he began his pro career as at 115 and rose to 126 just last year. Frampton, on the other hand, has campaigned at 122 for his entire career.

Given Santa Cruz's superior size, strength and versatility, Frampton's only chance to pull off an victory is to devise and execute the perfect fight plan. To do that, he should steal a page from the playbook of Winky Wright, one of the most under-recognized defensive technicians in the sport who excelled in defeating stronger, feistier opponents. Wright's upsets over Mosley (twice) and Felix Trinidad stemmed from his tricky, doublecrossing ability to feign a willingness to engage in an exchange only to pull away and sharp shoot his way to an academic albeit unspectacular victory.

Ultimately, though, Santa Cruz's big-fight experience and underrated ring IQ will tip the balance in this showdown. Frampton is no Winky Wright. He might give Santa Cruz fits initially with his movement and elusiveness but the Mexican makes the right adjustments to take control at the midway point and stop the Irishman in the ninth round.

Terrence Crawford vs. Viktor Postol

MGM Grand, Las Vegas, NV, July 23
TV: HBO
By Peter Lim

At initial glance, Terrence Crawford vs. Viktor Postol, both sporting identical, undefeated records, seems like a dead even matchup. But on closer inspection, the feistier, faster Crawford (28-0, 20 KOs) has a far better knockout percentage against a significantly better level of opposition than Postol (28-0, 12 KOs).

What Postol has on his side is sounder basic fundamentals. He's cut from the same clothe as Vernon Forrest, Joe Calzaghe, Juan Manuel Marquez and Tomas Adamek, fighters who know how to sidestep and time flashier, speedier and even stronger opponents to kill their rhythm, beat them to the punch and win the contest. Forrest's dismantling of Shane Mosley in their first fight in 2002 was the quintessential example of how the proverbial slow-but-steady tortoise can defeat an overly-cocky hare in the squared circle.

Crawford is no slouch when it comes to fundamentals, though. He might sometimes get carried away when on the attack but his tight-enough defense and sturdy-enough chin ensures he avoids making the same mistake twice. Postol gives Crawford fits for four or five rounds but Crawford makes the right adjustments in the later half of the bout to cruise to a comfortable decision in the 116-112 to 117-111 range.

Sergei Kovalev vs. Isaac Chilemba

DIVS, Ekaterinburg, Russia, July 11
TV: HBO
By Peter Lim

A mere glance at Chilemba's 24-3-2, 10 KOs record reveals that he doesn't pack much punching power and he can be outboxed. Granted, he has pulled off a handful of upsets against previously undefeated fighters but he has also lost to 19-1 and 18-0 fighters. He will be out of his league against Kovalev by leaps and bounds.

Kovalev (29-0-1, 26 KOs) has proven to be an A-plus caliber puncher and an A-minus caliber boxer at the very least. Nothing Chilemba does will bother him. The Russian assassin can end the fight early but chooses to toy with the South African for several rounds before crushing him in the fifth round.

Afterthoughts:
Who knew Chilemba had such a good chin.  

Deontay Wilder vs. Chris Arreola

Legacy Arena, Birmingham, AL, July 16
TV: Fox
By Peter Lim

Until about five years ago, Wilder (36-0, 35 KOs) would have been custom-made for Arreola. In his prime, the tough, concrete-chinned Arreola (36-4-1, 31 KOs) had a crowd-pleasing knack for walking down slicker opponents with better skills, taking their best shots and steamrolling them with wrecking-ball hooks and crosses. But Arreola's punch resistance is not what it used to be and his reaction time has eroded with age.

Despite his imposing size, Wilder, 30, is alarmingly easy to hit. He has unheedingly allowed crude brawlers to effortlessly penetrate his guard and rock him with clean solid punches. So far, he has managed to get in the knockout punch before all of his opponents, but if the mediocre fighters the likes of Eric Molina and Johann Duhaupas could stun him, who knows what kind of damage a seasoned top-notch heavyweight like Arreola in his prime might inflict on him.

Unless Arreola, 35, can turn back time and recapture his relentless pressure-fighting form, he will be custom made for Wilder at this juncture of their careers. Arreola has been reduced to a plodder, half a step too slow on his feet and a split second too slow on the trigger. Wilder will dictate the action, break him down, bust him up and stop him in the seventh round.

Afterthoughts:
Kudos to Arreola's corner for stopping the fight. He's done as a major player in the heavyweight division.

Anthony Joshua vs Dominic Breazeale

02 Arena, London, England, June 25
TV: Showtime
By Peter Lim

In the 2012 Olympics Joshua struck gold while Breazeale was eliminated in the first round of the tournament. Their careers played out pretty much the same way in the pro ranks with Joshua facing and defeating a substantially higher caliber of opponents than Breazeale.

In their previous fights, both beat powerful but relatively inexperienced southpaws. But while Joshua (16-0, 16 KOs) effortlessly dismantled Charles Martin in two rounds, Breazeale (17-0, 15 KOs) was decked by Amir Monsour in a life-and-death struggle before Monsour succumbed to a jaw injury in the sixth round.

Any which way you look at it, Joshua is the more composite, fluid and accomplished fighter. Faster on the trigger with his jab, Joshua needs only a round or two to figure out Breazeale, and once he does, it becomes a one-sided affair. Dominating the action from long range and up close and personal, Joshua drops Breazeale multiple times before stopping him in the fifth round. 

Afterthoughts:
Joshua could have ended the fight at any time; he just chose to hold back, get in some rounds and give the fans their money's worth.