Premonitions: Brandon Rios vs. Mike Alvarado III

Premonitions

By Peter Lim

Brandon Rios vs. Mike Alvarado III

Jan. 24, 1^st Bank Center, Broomfield, Colorado

Pick: Mike Alvarado

There are numerous intangibles in this fight – cuts, fouls, altitude, training disruptions (reported and unreported), machismo, etc. – but the winner essentially boils down to the fighter whose goods are less damaged at this juncture of their careers; and that is … Alvarado.

Both have been in their share of wars over the years in which they have dished out and absorbed a horrendous amount of brutality, but Rios, because of his stronger chin, has subjected himself to more sustained punishment that leads to longer lasting damage. The frailer Alvarado, on the other hand, has folded under the intense artillery that Rios was able to withstand, sparing him from the more prolonged beatings that Rios has endured. So ironically, Alvarado, on account of his weaker chin, will enter the ring the fresher, less shopworn of the two, albeit not by much.

The rubber match will simply be a repeat of Rios-Alvarado II, unless Rios can somehow lure Alvarado into the trenches and force a toe-to-toe slugfest as he did in their first encounter. Duplicating and refining his game plan from their last fight, Alvarado will sharp shoot from long range and, at opportune moments, sneak in, unload and sneak out before Rios can effectively return fire en route to a clear-cut decision victory.

Afterthoughts

I couldn't have been more wrong on this one. Rios looked fresh as a daisy, like he had erased the wear and tear of all his previous wars and started from a clean slate. Alvarado on the hand stepped into the ring looking like his fight against Juan Manuel Marquez happened just last night.